MONTANO ARMENDARIZ, Angélica. Análisis de los Factores de Resiliencia Económica en Baja California Sur, ante Crisis y Desastres Naturales. []. , 35, pp.55-75.   31-2022. ISSN 2477-9075.

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Este documento tiene por objetivo, analizar las diferencias en el comportamiento del empleo y el PIB en Baja California Sur, ante las crisis económicas y los fenómenos hidrometeorológicos que han afectado la región, a fin de valorar y relacionar estas diferencias con factores que -teórica o empíricamente- se han asociado con la resiliencia económica. Se plantea desde una perspectiva local y a corto plazo, al investigar este concepto en términos del empleo y el PIB considerando como periodo de análisis 2000-2015.

La metodología es de carácter cuantitativa, exploratoria y descriptiva, utiliza las técnicas de análisis y valoración de Hodrick-Prescott para valorar el desempeño económico a través del PIB estatal en su componente cíclico y de tendencia. Además, aplica el análisis de shift-share para determinar el comportamiento diferencial de las regiones frente a su contrafactual (ámbito nacional), ante la existencia de un shock, en este caso la crisis de 2008. Los resultados permiten identificar las regiones con mayor capacidad de resistencia y si esa resistencia tiene su origen en una diferente composición sectorial del empleo (efecto sectorial) y/o un mayor dinamismo de algunos sectores (efecto competitivo). La información generada revela que el área en estudio, presenta una buena resiliencia económica, registra indicadores de alta resistencia y recuperación, respecto de las principales ciudades del país. En el análisis sectorial y estructural, se destacan las actividades del sector terciario, como las de mayor soporte a la estructura económica local.

The study of the resilience capability is strengthened based on the 2008-2009 recession, considered one of the most significant economic crises since early in the 1930s. In this context, research about resilience is particularly relevant. This document has as the goal to analyze the differences in the behavior of employment and the PIB in Baja California Sur, in the face of economic crises and hydrometeorological phenomena that have affected the region, to evaluate and relate these differences with factors that -theoretically or empirically- have been associated with economic resilience. It's posed from a local and short period perspective when researching this concept regarding employment and the PIB to analyze the period from 2000-2015.

The methodology is of a quantitative, exploratory, and descriptive nature. It uses the analysis and rating techniques of Hodrick-Prescott to evaluate its economic development through the state PIB in its cyclical and trending component. It uses shift-share analysis to determine the differential behavior from the regions against its counterfactual (national scope), in the face of a shock, in this case, the crisis of 2008.

The results allow us to identify the regions with the bigger resistance capability and if this resistance has its origin in a different employment sectorial composition (sectorial effect) and/or a bigger dynamism of some sectors (competitive effect). The document includes, in addition, an analysis of the impact the hurricanes create, given that the regions show a high risk towards this kind of hydrometeorological phenomena, same that they influence the local economy, mainly because of its negative effects on supply and demand of tourism and the linked sectors. The results revealed that BCS shows good economic resilience register high resistance and recovering indicator, compared to the country's main cities. In the sectorial and structural analysis, the tertiary sector activities are emphasized as the ones that offer the biggest support to the local economic structure.

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