<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1390-8618</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[RETOS. Revista de Ciencias de la Administración y Economía]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Retos]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1390-8618</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Politécnica Salesiana]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1390-86182023000100055</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17163/ret.n25.2023.04</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Aversión al riesgo al tomar decisiones económicas, efecto certeza y estimación de probabilidades]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Risk aversion making economic decisions, certainly effect and probabilities estimation]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Aguado-Franco]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Carlos]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Rey Juan Carlos  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>España</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>13</volume>
<numero>25</numero>
<fpage>55</fpage>
<lpage>66</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.senescyt.gob.ec/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1390-86182023000100055&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.senescyt.gob.ec/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1390-86182023000100055&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.senescyt.gob.ec/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1390-86182023000100055&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen se ha observado empíricamente que la violación de los principios de la teoría de la utilidad se produce con frecuencia en la toma de decisiones en entornos de riesgo. Esto llevó a la formulación de la teoría de las perspectivas en la que, además de tener en cuenta la diferente consideración de las pérdidas y las ganancias, así como la postura ante el riesgo de los decisores, mostrando aversión por el riesgo en las ganancias y amor por el riesgo en las pérdidas, se enmarca el efecto certeza. Según el efecto certeza, los decisores tienen tendencia a infravalorar los pagos que son meramente probables, en comparación con aquellos que se obtienen con certeza. Allais mostró la irracionalidad que se produce en la toma de decisiones en este contexto. Por otro lado, para tomar decisiones arriesgadas, es necesario conocer cómo funcionan las probabilidades. Con el objetivo de determinar las relaciones existentes entre la aversión al riesgo, el efecto certeza y el conocimiento básico de la teoría de las probabilidades, se diseñó un estudio experimental en el que se constató, utilizando una formulación basada en la paradoja de Allais, que quienes tienen mayores conocimientos de los principios de la probabilidad muestran una mayor aversión al riesgo, pero el hecho de incurrir en el efecto certeza, sin embargo, es una circunstancia que no se ve afectada significativamente por dicho conocimiento.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract it has been empirically observed that the principles of utility theory are frequently violated in decision-making in risky environments. This led to the formulation of the prospect theory. In prospect theory, in addition to taking into account the different consideration of gains and losses (losses loom larger than gains), as well as the risk posture of decision-makers (risk aversion for gains and risk seeking for losses), the certainty effect is framed. According to the certainty effect, decision makers tend to underestimate payments that are merely probable, compared to those that are obtained with certainty. Allais demonstrated the irrationality that occurs in decision making in this context. On the other hand, to make risky decisions, it is necessary to know how the probabilities work. In order to determine the relationships between risk aversion, the certainty effect, and basic knowledge of probability theory, an experimental study was designed. In this study, it was verified, using a formulation based on the Allais paradox, that those who have greater knowledge of the principles of probability show greater aversion to risk. However, the fact of incurring in the certainty effect is a circumstance that is not significantly affected by said knowledge.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[racionalidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[teoría de la decisión]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[aversión al riesgo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[economía conductual]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[experimento]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[paradoja de Allais]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[efecto certeza]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[teoría de las perspectivas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[decision theory]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[rationality]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[prospect theory]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[risk aversion]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[behavioral economics]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[experiment]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Allais paradox]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[certainly effect]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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