<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1390-4299</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[URVIO Revista Latinoamericana de Estudios de Seguridad]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[URVIO]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1390-4299</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales- FLACSO-Sede Ecuador]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1390-42992022000200087</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17141/urvio.33.2022.5365</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[De la compensación a la emulación: un análisis realista neoclásico de las estrategias de contrapeso interno de Rusia]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[From Offsetting to Emulation: A Neoclassical Realist Analysis of Russia&#8217;s Internal Balancing Strategies]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Da compensação à emulação: Uma análise realista neoclássica das estratégias de balanceamento interno da Rússia]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Dall'Agnol]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Augusto C]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Brazil</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<numero>33</numero>
<fpage>87</fpage>
<lpage>108</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.senescyt.gob.ec/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1390-42992022000200087&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.senescyt.gob.ec/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1390-42992022000200087&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.senescyt.gob.ec/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1390-42992022000200087&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen En 2008, Rusia comenzó a implementar su reforma militar más grande desde la creación del Ejército Rojo en 1918. Los intentos anteriores, en 1992, 1997 y 2003, no lograron transformaciones fundamentales en sus fuerzas armadas. ¿Por qué la reforma militar de 2008 tuvo éxito y otras no? Este artículo utiliza el método histórico comparativo para identificar los mecanismos causales entre el nivel de amenaza externa de Rusia, su nivel de capacidad estatal y sus estrategias de contrapeso interno adoptadas desde 1991. Además, este análisis avanza las variables sistémicas y unitarias del realismo neoclásico, basándose en las contribuciones de los estudios estratégicos y la sociología histórica, en detrimento de otras teorías de las Relaciones Internacionales. En síntesis, el éxito de las reformas militares en Rusia, en el período posterior a la Guerra Fría, depende de la existencia simultánea de tres condiciones: la posibilidad de perturbar la estabilidad estratégica, la capacidad del Estado ruso de extraer y movilizar recursos sociales, y la existencia de algún evento de ineficacia probada. En escenarios en que solo una o dos de estas condiciones están presentes, los rusos llevaron a cabo solo reformas parciales. Finalmente, el artículo arroja luz sobre tres impulsores de la reforma militar de Rusia, a menudo descuidados por analistas occidentales: su continuo énfasis en la competencia interestatal, la estabilidad estratégica y la guerra convencional de media y alta intensidad.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract   In 2008, Russia began to implement its largest military reform since the creation of the Red Army in 1918. Previous attempts at reforms in 1992, 1997, and 2003 did not result in fundamental transformations to the country&#8217;s military. Why was the 2008 military reform successful while others were not? This article uses the comparative-historical method to identify the causal mechanisms between Russia&#8217;s level of external threat, state capacity, and internal balancing strategies adopted since 1991. It advances Neoclassical Realism&#8217;s systemic and unit-level variables by building on the long-established contributions from Strategic Studies and Historical Sociology instead of relying on other International Relations theories. It concludes that the success of Russia&#8217;s military reforms in the post-Cold War period depended on the simultaneous existence of three conditions: the possibility of disrupting strategic stability, its ability to extract and mobilize societal resources, and the presence of some event of proven ineffectiveness. Under scenarios in which only one or two of these conditions were present, Russia carried out only partial military reforms. The article sheds light on three often-neglected drivers of Russia&#8217;s military reform by Western analysts: its enduring emphasis on interstate competition, strategic stability, and mid-to-high intensity conventional warfare.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo Em 2008, a Rússia iniciou a implementar a sua maior reforma militar desde a criação do Exército Vermelho em 1918. Tentativas anteriores em 1992, 1997 e 2003 não resultaram em transformações fundamentais nas suas forças armadas. ¿Por que a reforma militar de 2008 foi bem-sucedida, enquanto as outras não? Este artigo usa o método histórico comparativo para identificar os mecanismos causais entre o nível de ameaça externa da Rússia, seu nível de capacidade estatal, e suas estratégias de balanceamento interno adotadas desde 1991. Avança-se as variáveis sistêmicas e unitárias do realismo neoclássico baseando-se nas contribuições dos estudos estratégicos e da sociologia histórica, em detrimento de outras teorias de Relações Internacionais. Conclui-se que o sucesso das reformas militares da Rússia desde o pós-Guerra Fria dependeu da existência simultânea de três condições: a possibilidade do rompimento da estabilidade estratégica, sua capacidade de extrair e mobilizar recursos societais e da existência de algum evento de ineficácia comprovada. Em cenários em que apenas uma, ou duas, dessas condições estiveram presentes, a Rússia levou a cabo apenas reformas parciais. Finalmente, o artigo enfatiza três causas da reforma militar frequentemente negligenciadas por analistas ocidentais: a sua contínua ênfase na competição interestatal, a estabilidade estratégica e a guerra convencional de média e alta intensidade.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[digitization]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[historical sociology]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[military]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Russia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[security]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[digitalización]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Fuerzas Armadas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Rusia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[seguridad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[sociología histórica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[digitalização]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Forças Armadas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Rússia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[segurança]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[sociologia histórica]]></kwd>
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</article-meta>
</front><back>
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