<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2631-2654</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Digital Novasinergia]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Novasinergia]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2631-2654</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad Nacional de Chimborazo ]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2631-26542021000200062</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.37135/ns.01.08.04</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelos predictivos de los contagios de la COVID-19 para la provincia de Loja - Ecuador]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Predictive models of COVID-19 infections for the province of Loja - Ecuador]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Salcedo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Franco]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Salcedo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Galo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Loja ]]></addr-line>
<country>Ecuador</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional de Loja  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Loja ]]></addr-line>
<country>Ecuador</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>4</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<fpage>62</fpage>
<lpage>77</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.senescyt.gob.ec/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2631-26542021000200062&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.senescyt.gob.ec/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2631-26542021000200062&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.senescyt.gob.ec/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2631-26542021000200062&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen: La provincia de Loja, como en todo el mundo, ha sido afectada por la COVID-19, lo que puso a prueba la capacidad de los sistemas de salud y a sus gobernantes. Ante este escenario, obtener predicciones de los casos de contagios constituye un factor importante para tomar decisiones. Para predecir el nivel de contagios se utilizaron, el método numérico de las diferencias divididas, modelo logístico simple, un modelo logístico mejorado en el que se incluye la proporción de confinamiento y, el método de los mínimos cuadrados. Se utilizaron datos proporcionados por el Ministerio de Salud Pública del Ecuador en un período de 399 días desde la aparición de los primeros casos y su procesamiento se realizó con el Software GNU Octave, versión: 5.1.0. Los modelos logísticos son poco satisfactorios debido al desconocimiento de algunos factores, como la tasa de contagios, recuperados, movilidad de individuos contagiados y su interacción con los individuos no contagiados, la proporción del nivel de confinamiento en cada jurisdicción política. El método de los mínimos cuadrados ofrece mejores resultados para las predicciones, ya que no emplea tasas ni proporciones y minimiza el error cuadrático, es decir encuentra la curva que pasa entre los puntos de los datos.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract: The province of Loja, like the rest of the world, has been affected by COVID-19, which put the capacity of health systems and their leaders to the test. Given this scenario, obtaining predictions of the cases of contagion is an important factor in making decisions. To predict the level of infections, the numerical method of divided differences, a simple logistic model, an improved logistic model that includes the proportion of confinement, and the least squares method were used. Data provided by the Ministry of Public Health of Ecuador were used in a period of 399 days from the appearance of the first cases and their processing was carried out with the GNU Octave Software, version: 5.1.0. Logistic models are unsatisfactory due to insufficient information about some factors, such as the rate of infections, recoveries, mobility of infected individuals and their interaction with non-infected individuals, and the proportion of the level of confinement in each political jurisdiction. The method least squares offers better results for predictions, since it does not use rates or proportions and minimizes the quadratic error, that is, it finds the curve that passes between the data points.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[mínimos cuadrados]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo logístico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo predictivo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[pandemia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[least squares]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[logistics model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[pandemic]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[predictive model]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
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