<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1390-6542</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Enfoque UTE]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Enfoque UTE]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1390-6542</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad UTE]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1390-65422020000400101</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.29019/enfoqueute.v11n4.678</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Efficient Prediction and Analysis of the possible evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 applying the SEIR model in Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, Ecuador]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Predicción y análisis eficiente de la posible evolución del SARS-CoV-2 en COVID-19, aplicando el modelo SEIR en Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, Ecuador]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mora Murillo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Moisés Filiberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mora Murillo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Walter Alfredo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pandey]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Digvijay]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Superior Tecnológico Japón  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Ecuador</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Superior Tecnológico Japón  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Ecuador</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Kamla Nehru Institute of Technology  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>India</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>11</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<fpage>101</fpage>
<lpage>115</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.senescyt.gob.ec/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1390-65422020000400101&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.senescyt.gob.ec/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1390-65422020000400101&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.senescyt.gob.ec/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1390-65422020000400101&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract In Ecuador, in the Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas province, a Special Operations Committee (SOC) was created to take containment measures against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2). This research deals with an analysis of the possible spread of the SARS-COV-2 virus causing the infectious disease caused by new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) using the Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered (SEIR) model as a prediction method according to the rigor of the containment measures evaluated. with the acceptability of people through a survey (95 %, CI) in which three parameters (&#945;) severity of containment measures, (k) social impact of the pandemic and (&#946;) transmission rate, are determined, which we then used as &#946; (t) with initial value of &#946; = 1. All this considering the rapid proliferation of the virus in the province and having an average of &#945; = 3.23 (95 % CI: 3 - 4) and for k = 4.10 (95 % CI: 4 - 5) that the authorities will use to mitigate the spread of the virus, as well as future outbreaks of the disease.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen En Ecuador, en la provincia de Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, se creó un Comité de Operaciones Especiales (SOC), para tomar medidas de contención contra el coronavirus 2, del síndrome respiratorio agudo severo (SARS-COV-2). Esta investigación aborda un análisis de la posible propagación del virus SARS-COV-2, que causa la enfermedad infecciosa, provocada por el nuevo coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Para ello se utiliza el modelo Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered (SEIR), como método de predicción, de acuerdo con el rigor de las medidas de contención evaluadas y con la aceptación de las personas, a través de una encuesta (95 %, IC), en la caul se determinan tres parámetros: (&#945;) gravedad de las medidas de contención, (k) impacto social de la pandemia, y (&#946;), tasa de transmisión, que luego usamos como &#946; (t) con valor inicial de &#946; = 1. Todo esto, al considerar la rápida proliferación del virus en la provincia y que tiene un promedio de &#945; = 3.23 (IC 95 %: 3 - 4), y para k = 4.10 (IC 95 %: 4 - 5), que las autoridades utilizarán para mitigar la propagación del virus, así como futuros brotes de la enfermedad.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[SARS-CoV-2]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Corona virus]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Modeling]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Simulation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[transmissible, SEIR]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[SARS-CoV-2]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Corona virus]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Simulación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[transmisibilidad]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Castro]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[De los Reyes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Merino]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ponce]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Centro de Modelización Matemática en Áreas Clave para el Desarrollo, MODEMAT]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>GadStoDgo</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Se suspenden los eventos masivos a nivel del Ecuador para evitar propagación del Coronavirus.]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<source><![CDATA[New England Journal of Medicine]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Huang Ch]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y. W.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Lancet]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Imai]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cori]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Dorigatti]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[I.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Baguelin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Donnelly]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Riley]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ferguson]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Imperial College London]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>INEC</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Resultados del Censo de población y vivienda en el Ecuador Fascículo provincial Santo Domingo]]></source>
<year>2010</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>INEC</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Empleo-diciembre Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lauer]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S. A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Grantz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K. H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Q.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jones]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F. K.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zheng]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Q.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Meredith]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H. R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Azman]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Reich]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N. G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lessler]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Annals of Internal Medicine]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Li]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Z.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Chaos Solitons &amp; Fractals]]></source>
<year>2006</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Li]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pei]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Chen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Song]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zhang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Yang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Shaman]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Science]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B11">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lin]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Q.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zhao]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gao]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lou]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Yang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Musa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S. S.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M. H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cai]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Yang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[He]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[International Journal of Infectious Diseases]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B12">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martínez Ortega]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tuya Pendás]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L. C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martínez Ortega]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[M.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pérez Abreu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cánovas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Revista Habanera de Ciencias Médicas]]></source>
<year>2009</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B13">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>OMS</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Preguntas y respuestas sobre la enfermedad por coronavirus OVID- Organización Mundial de la Salud]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B14">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>SNGR</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Informes de Situación e Infografías &#8211; COVID &#8211; desde el 29 de Febrero del 2020 Sistema Nacional de Gestión de Riesgos]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Hu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zhu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Liu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[X.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zhang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Xiang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[H.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cheng]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Z.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Xiong]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zhao]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Li]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[X.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Peng]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Z.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[JAMA]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B16">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Liu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Q.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Yang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Z.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[International Journal of Infectious Diseases]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B17">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J. T.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Leung]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Leung]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G. M.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[The Lancet]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B18">
<nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zhu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[N.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zhang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Li]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[X.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Yang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Song]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zhao]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[X.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Huang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[B.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Shi]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Niu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[P.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zhan]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ma]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[X.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[D.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Xu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Wu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gao]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G. F.]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Tan]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[W.]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[New England Journal of Medicine]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
