Abstract

REYES BUENO, Fabián  and  BALCAZAR GALLEGOS, Carla. Factores que inciden en la probabilidad de ocurrencia de incendios forestales en Ecuador. Figempa [online]. 2021, vol.11, n.1, pp.50-60. ISSN 2602-8484.  https://doi.org/10.29166/revfig.v11i1.2634.

Forest fires are an environmental and socioeconomic problem; the frequency and area affected by these events are attributed to climate change and anthropogenic activities in the territory. As part of the prevention programs, it is necessary to identify and limit the areas susceptible to forest fires for the prioritization of resources by the responsible entities. Geographic information systems and MaXent (maximum entropy models) are used for this purpose. Fire occurrence data were obtained from the Active fire data platform. As independent variables, climate information was obtained from WorldClim, and accessibility variables were generated for the study area, in the period 2012-2018 In this model it was identified that the variable distance to anthropic zones is the most important and thus the most susceptible predictor to a forest fire in Loja canton, followed by the climatic variables minimum temperature in the coldest month and precipitation in the driest quarter; these three variables coincide within the characteristics that are indicated in the few studies found and by public entities at the national level. A superficial analysis was made of the arrival time of the Fire Department to the areas identified as susceptible, showing that almost 99.96% of these areas are outside the optimal response time (5 min) and 32.94% are within the 7 km radius of action, which has a negative impact on the control of a forest fire.

Keywords : Forest fires; fire management; spatial analysis; MaXent.

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