Resumen

GORTAIRE, Danilo; AYABACA, Edgar; BORJA, Felipe  y  VALAREZO, Benjamín. Modelo para el pronóstico de la demanda real de agua potable en Quito. Figempa [online]. 2016, vol.2, n.2, pp.39-50. ISSN 2602-8484.  https://doi.org/10.29166/revfig.v1i2.883.

It is proposed to develop, calibrate and validate a mathematical model that predicts the real demand for drinking water in Quito horizons short, medium and long term, considering the main variables that act in the water supply. It is assumed that the demand for drinking water in Quito can be predicted as their fluctuation and growth are defined largely by weather, urban planning or land use, demographic, economic, social variables and autocorrelation own demand. The model forecast water demand corresponds to the study and analysis of a time series or vector X1 2557 data average daily flow (liters / sec.) Delivered by Treatment Plant Drinking Water Bellavista, POWPA of Quito, from January 2007 to December 2013. for the analysis of the time series or vector X1 several statesmen tools and fast Fourier transform that helps us determine the periodicities of the phenomenon are used. It is concluded explicitly obtaining sought forecast function potable water. The validation of the demand function obtained is the will in the second stage of the research, using data ranging from the beginning of 2014 until 2016.

Palabras clave : Time series of water demand; additive model; trend; periodic component; random component; Fourier transform; frequency; method of least squares; coefficient of determination; trigonometric polynomial adjustment; final demand function.

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