Abstract

LONDONO ESPINOSA, Sebastián; REZA PAOCARINA, Édison Bolívar; LEON SERRANO, Lady Andrea  and  MORALES NORIEGA, Adriana Margarita. The sustainability of public debt in Ecuador: A medium-term vision. Podium [online]. 2021, n.40, pp.59-74.  Epub Dec 19, 2021. ISSN 2588-0969.  https://doi.org/10.31095/podium.2021.40.4.

The sustainability of public finances and public debt is a matter of debate for the Ecuadorian case, for this the research focuses on three different models in order to evaluate medium-term sustainability: i) model of primary result that stabilizes debt at the value established in the legal framework and, the gap with the observed, ii) analysis of fiscal policy from a viewpoint of weakly sustainable or strongly sustainable during the 2008-2020 period and, iii) the convergence of public debt in the medium and long term in accordance with the provisions of the law. Among the main results obtained, the need for a framework for the consolidation of fiscal accounts is observed, in a gradual way that does not generate effects on other macro-fiscal variables such as economic growth and employment.

Keywords : Sustainability; public debt; public finances; fiscal policy; debt; economic growth.

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