Resumo

REYNA GARCIA, Adrian Eliceo; REYNA BOWEN, José Lizardo  e  VINCES SOLORZANO, Carlos Julio. URBAN GROWTH SCENARIOS FOR THE YEARS 2017 AND 2022 OF THE CITY OF PORTOVIEJO, MANABI-ECUADOR, FROM CELLULAR AUTOMATA. Revista San Gregorio [online]. 2017, vol.1, n.19, pp.20-33. ISSN 2528-7907.

Urban sprawl is, today, a phenomenon characteristic of areas with high population density and building spaces nearby and the city of Portoviejo is no exception. Human settlements in the city grow spontaneously, without planning, no precise boundaries between urban and rural areas are established, increasingly they occupy protected areas, steep slopes and riverbanks. This work, therefore seeks to generate urban growth scenarios based on cellular automata for the city of Portoviejo for the years 2017 and 2022. The study finds cellular automata as a dynamic tool for predicting future scenarios of urban spot the city by the DINAMICA EGO software and model Land Use Cover Change, taking into account variables dynamic and static as roads, rivers, plains of the river, airport, sewage plant, elevation 100 m, distance to roads, inverse distance river, DEM and slopes, the DEM being the most relevant for the model variable. Furthermore, the model with an average of 0.36 ha, has a variance of 0.47 and an isometry 1 for both patching as for expansion was calibrated with a net change rate of 0.25%, obtaining a validation of up to 81% similarity difference. 2017 is projected to city grow about 6% and for the year 2022 by approximately 7% compared to the urban area by 2010.

Palavras-chave : Growth scenarios; Cellular autómata; Human settlements; Predictive model; GIS.

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