Abstract

DIAZ-PINZON, Jorge Enrique. Brent oil price fluctuation due to the war between Russia and Ukraine. Revista Economía y Política [online]. 2023, n.37, pp.104-116.  Epub Jan 30, 2023. ISSN 2477-9075.  https://doi.org/10.25097/rep.n37.2023.06.

Introduction: Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine began on February 24, 2022, economic consequences are already being observed worldwide. One of them was the increase in the price of BRENT oil, which closed on February 24 at US$ 99.08. Methodology: The research work was carried out through an experimental type, to develop the research the database of the closing price of the barrel of Brent Oil was used, during the period between January 2, 2022 to June 3, 2022. Results: Based on the statistical analysis of the data applying the Chow test, the Fc of the test was 47,97, this was greater than the Ft that was 3,087, in this way Ho was rejected, that is, that there is stability in Brent oil prices before and during the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. And therefore, there is a structural change in day 39 which is when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine began. Conclusion: The price of Brent oil remains captive of strong swings as a result of Russia's war in Ukraine. On the first day of the invasion of Ukraine, the increase was 2.31% with a settlement price per barrel of USD 99.08 and one hundred days after the start of the conflict on June 3, 2022, the price of the Brent barrel increased by 20 .8%, and traded at $119.72 per barrel.

Keywords : Brent oil; linear regression; coefficient of determination.

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