Abstract

JACOBO, Alejandro D.  and  MARENGO, Alejandro. Business cycles synchronization among Argentina, Brazil and their main EU trading partners. Revista Economía y Política [online]. 2020, n.32, pp.194-211.  Epub July 08, 2020. ISSN 2477-9075.  https://doi.org/10.25097/rep.n32.2020.07.

In this paper, we apply the Hodrick and Prescott filter to explore whether the economic fluctuations of Argentina, Brazil and their main European Union (EU) trading partners followed a similar pattern for the period 1995.1-2018.4. When both South American economies are analyzed together, the highest coincidence is observed in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fluctuations (almost 75% of the observations lie on the same side of the zero line). However, as to the rest of GDP components, a drop is observed in the coincidences (the observations are close to 50%). While Argentinian GDP, private consumption and imports have a significant correlation with their Brazilian counterparts, this association is rather modest. As to their main EU partners, trade integration is likely to lead to a higher business cycles synchronization for Argentina, but it is not for Brazil.

Keywords : Argentina; Brazil; business cycle.

        · abstract in Spanish     · text in English     · English ( pdf )