Resumo

VACA SIGUEZA, Alexander Javier  e  ORELLANA OSORIO, Iván. Financial risk analysis in the manufacturing sector of other non-metallic mineral products in Ecuador. Revista Economía y Política [online]. 2020, n.32, pp.133-165.  Epub 08-Jul-2020. ISSN 2477-9075.  https://doi.org/10.25097/rep.n32.2020.05.

This research analyzes the financial risk (insolvency, liquidity and market) in the manufacturing of other non-metallic mineral products in the period from 2007 to 2017. This project considered the application of the following methodologies for each pattern: first the application of Ohlson and Altman methodology, in the case Insolvency; second, a Logit and Probit model in the case of liquidity; and finally, the mathematical model for market risk, Capital Asset Pricing Model CAPM. As results, there will be obtained trends and behaviors of financial risks, as well as information on statistical and probabilistic variables. For this analysis, the database from the Suerintendencia de Compañias (Superintendency of Companies) was taken as source of information. The years 2008 and 2016 presented the higher risk indicators: in Altman a score of 5,646 (gray area) and in Ohlson 10.06%, coinciding that they are the riskiest years. In the market risk analysis, the non-metallic mineral products manufacturing sector obtained 1,2806, which expresses that with a variation of 1% in market performance, this would vary by 1,2806%. Regarding the liquidity of the sector, there is a high risk in years such as 2008, 2010 and leading 2015, with micro-enterprises being the most affected. For this reason, this research offers relevant information to the different interest groups, encouraging investment and promoting government support in risky situations.

Palavras-chave : Financial risk; Altman model; Ohlson model; Logit and Probit model; Capital Asset Pricing Model; mathematical model; manufacturing sector.

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