Resumo

ESCOBAR SAILEMA,, Juan C.. Model of statistical estimation «Program of Productive Inclusion» MIPRO-Ecuador. Retos [online]. 2019, vol.9, n.18, pp.303-325. ISSN 1390-8618.  https://doi.org/10.17163/ret.n18.2019.08.

This research demonstrates the incidence of demand estimates on the profitability of the enterprises advised within the «Productive Inclusion» program carried out by the Ministry of Industries and Productivity-Mipro (Ecuador). The academic-practical contribution that derives from the present object of study will be inputs for this Ministry, their respective zones, addresses and for those who give adequate use of the final product. The objective of this work is to determine the incidence of a model of statistical estimation of the demand in the improvement of the profitability of the enterprises, which includes evaluating the model of estimation of the used demand, to determine the levels of profitability, the variables of incidence, and to identify the components of a model of statistical estimation. These objectives were achieved through data collection, numerical measurement, and statistical analysis of the data. The target population is comprised of 702 enterprises, classified into 4 productive sectors: trade in goods, trade in services, manufacturing and agriculture. Establishing a sample of 248 observations with a 95% confidence level and a standard deviation of 0.5, the result obtained is the design of a model of statistical estimation of the demand and its applicability, whose precision is statistically and financially acceptable, which means the improvement of the profitability of the enterprises assessed and the fulfillment of the institutional objectives.

Palavras-chave : Statistical; entrepreneurship; analysis; estimation; methods; prospective.

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