Abstract

BUSTAMANTE CALDERON, Diana. Climate change scenario at subwatershed level hydrographic for the year 2050 of the Chimborazo province of Ecuador. La Granja [online]. 2017, vol.26, n.2, pp.15-27. ISSN 1390-8596.  https://doi.org/10.17163/lgr.n26.2017.02.

The present study was realized in the Province of Chimborazo-equator by the intention of establishing a scene of climate change for the year 2050, in order to implement public policies in the Plan of Development and Territorial Classification that they help to reduce the vulnerability of the population before the climatic risks. For it, information was analyzed to level of hydrographic subbasins by a spatial resolution of 1 km2 in a scene of radiation of 2,6 RCP, it corresponds to a Global Model of Traffic (GCM) named MIROC-ESM-CHEM. In the definition of the scene, information was in use to a scale 1:4000000 more detailed generated by WorldClim since the climatic available information of models as PRECIS, TL959 generated for the Ecuador, they have a very low detail with a cricket of 50 km2, it climbs 1:282 800 000, which for the case of the province it is great bounding one considering that of the information obtained results for level of subbasins. On having compared the current scene and that of climate change for the year 2050, in the information climatic variations were observed principally reduction of the rainfall in the subbasins: Rio Namangoza, Rio Patate and Rio Chambo; as well as, an increase of the minimal and maximum temperature in the subbasin Rio Namangoza

Keywords : Climatic scenarios; vulnerability; Chimborazo; subbasin.

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