Abstract

MORA MURILLO, Moisés Filiberto; MORA MURILLO, Walter Alfredo  and  PANDEY, Digvijay. Efficient Prediction and Analysis of the possible evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 applying the SEIR model in Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas, Ecuador. Enfoque UTE [online]. 2020, vol.11, n.4, pp.101-115. ISSN 1390-6542.  https://doi.org/10.29019/enfoqueute.v11n4.678.

In Ecuador, in the Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas province, a Special Operations Committee (SOC) was created to take containment measures against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2). This research deals with an analysis of the possible spread of the SARS-COV-2 virus causing the infectious disease caused by new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) using the Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered (SEIR) model as a prediction method according to the rigor of the containment measures evaluated. with the acceptability of people through a survey (95 %, CI) in which three parameters (α) severity of containment measures, (k) social impact of the pandemic and (β) transmission rate, are determined, which we then used as β (t) with initial value of β = 1. All this considering the rapid proliferation of the virus in the province and having an average of α = 3.23 (95 % CI: 3 - 4) and for k = 4.10 (95 % CI: 4 - 5) that the authorities will use to mitigate the spread of the virus, as well as future outbreaks of the disease.

Keywords : SARS-CoV-2; Corona virus; Modeling; Simulation; transmissible, SEIR.

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