Abstract

MEJIA, César; ROCHA, Alex  and  CEPEDA, Jaime. Estimating the Size of the Disturbance in Frequency Events using Multivariate Data Analytics. Rev Politéc. (Quito) [online]. 2025, vol.55, n.1, pp.17-28. ISSN 2477-8990.  https://doi.org/10.33333/rp.vol55n1.02.

Microgrids, defined as interconnected loads and distributed energy resources operating within clearly defined electrical boundaries, can function either connected to or isolated from the main grid. These systems face critical challenges related to frequency stability, especially following significant disturbances such as the loss of electrical generation, which is particularly problematic in isolated microgrids or those lacking an effective Load Shedding Scheme (LSS). This work presents an innovative methodology for estimating the size of disturbances during frequency events, which is integrated into an adaptive LSS. The methodology is applied to the Galápagos Santa Cruz - Baltra microgrid, using multiple linear regression models. Additionally, it is complemented by a contingency analysis based on Monte Carlo simulations, obtaining critical data such as minimum frequency (Nadir), rate of change of frequency (RoCoF), settling voltage (Vend), and settling frequency (fend). The evaluation conducted across seven different scenarios demonstrates the high effectiveness of multiple linear regression in predicting the size of disturbances, that highlights its potential to enhance the stability and reliability of microgrids.

Keywords : Monte Carlo; multiple linear regression; microgrid; stability.

        · abstract in Spanish     · text in Spanish     · Spanish ( pdf )