Abstract

VERA, Pablo et al. Numerical Model and Maps by Primary Lahars in Southern Drainage of Cotopaxi Volcano. Rev Politéc. (Quito) [online]. 2019, vol.43, n.1, pp.61-72. ISSN 2477-8990.

Primary lahar flows are originated during eruptions of ice-capped volcanoes, such as the Cotopaxi volcano, as the result of the combination of physical mechanisms related to eruptive phenomenon such as the expulsion and fall of ash, pyroclastic material and incandescent lava flows that can cause sudden melting of a portion of the glacier. Lahars have a direct incidence on human settlements including infrastructure built along the rivers and plains that correspond to the natural drainages through which the laharic flows pass. Cotopaxi eruption recurrence is relatively long given that the last significant event was recorded in June 1877. The overall purpose of the study is to present the one-dimensional numerical simulation results for non-permanent flow employing the open-source software HEC-RAS. The boundary conditions as DEM, melt volumes, hydrographs among others was the result of up-to-date geological, glaciological, volcanological and cartographic information, generated and compiled during the last years. The calibrated model based on 1877 historical event is the cornerstone for the numerical modelling of the probable scenarios. The obtained results allow the generation of referential maps which are a practical contribution since they can be used to make decisions regarding the affected areas, safe sites, territorial planning, awareness, recovery and mitigation plans in the presence of the Cotopaxi eruption with particular incidence in Latacunga Valley.

Keywords : Numerical Modeling; Lahars; Maps; Cotopaxi.

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