Resumo

CHAMBA, Marlon et al. Probabilistic Evaluation and Risk Management of Network Loadability for the Commissioning of the Quito Subway considering the Stochastic Motion of Electric Trains. Revista Técnica energía [online]. 2019, vol.15, n.2, pp.1-11. ISSN 2602-8492.  https://doi.org/10.37116/revistaenergia.v15.n2.2019.370.

This paper presents a methodological proposal to assess the effects of the Quito City Subway’s mobile loads (electric trains) over the Empresa Eléctrica Quito’s electric grid. This proposal, based on Monte Carlo simulation, allows generating random operation scenarios for mass electric transportation systems considering movement, energy consumption, and operating conditions for electric trains. This method gauges probabilistic power flows using probability density functions (PDFs). In the same way, it computes risk indexes to measure the minimum or maximum expected values of loadability characterizing factors, such as equipment loading, voltage profiles, among others taking into account a defined degree of confidence.

Palavras-chave : Probabilistic power flow; uncertainty; risk index; risk management; Monte Carlo; underground railway system..

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