Abstract

SERRANO VINCENTI, Sheila; RUIZ, Jean Carlos  and  BERSOSA, Fabián. HEAVY RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE PROYECTIONS IN A CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO OVER QUITO, ECUADOR. La Granja [online]. 2017, vol.25, n.1, pp.16-32. ISSN 1390-8596.  https://doi.org/10.17163/lgr.n25.2017.02.

This research analyzes daily extreme events of minimum, maximum temperatures and rain in the Metropolitan Dis- trict of Quito using data of more than 30 years from the meteorological network of INAMHI (Instituto Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología de Ecuador) using the R- ClimDex computer program. A scenario for the year 2032 com- bining statistical results of extreme events and physical forcing from PRECIS scenarios A2 and B2 is also presented; using the extreme value theory from extReme computer program. The results showed an increase in extreme minimum and maximum monthly temperature values in both, magnitude and frequency; and an increase in the intensity of heavy rainfall. Projections to 2022 maintain this behavior, with results that should be taken into account by policy makers and scientists due to the danger they mean for Quito’s ecosystem.

Keywords : valores extremos; precipitación; temperatura; Distrito Metropolitano de Quito; escenarios de cambio climático.

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