Abstract

CASTRO, Paula; DE LOS REYES, Juan-Carlos; GONZALEZ-ANDRADE, Sergio  and  MERINO, Pedro. Parameter Estimation for SARS-CoV-2 Model in Ecuador in Presence of Uncertainty. Rev Politéc. (Quito) [online]. 2021, vol.47, n.1, pp.7-16. ISSN 2477-8990.  https://doi.org/10.33333/rp.v47n1.01.

In this article we present the mathematical compartmental SARS-CoV-2 model, with asymptomatic patients, used by the Research Center on Mathematical Modelling (MODEMAT) to study the spread of the virus in Ecuador, as well as the developed Bayesian variational approach to estimate the model parameters, under uncertainty of the observed data. Thanks to this framework, we are able to estimate periodically the effective reproduction number and carry out short-term forecasts, using an ensemble method, of the incidence of the epidemic.

Keywords : Parameter estimation; SARS-CoV-2; Inverse problems; Data assimilation; Bayesian approach.

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